Three Horizons

The Three Horizons is a model for thinking about the future and how it emerges from the present. It helps us simultaneously hold a vision for the future, the reality of the present and opportunities for creating transition. 

In the Pattern Book, the Three Horizons motif:

• prompts future thinking
• examines trends that signal change and the forces that keep some systems in place
• provides a metaphor for uncertainty, that the future cannot be fully defined and that its roots lie in the choices we make in the present
• helps understand the different views that people can have about the present and the future
• enables long-term strategic insight, for example in infrastructure design or policy decisions. 

The Three Horizons model was developed by Bill Sharpe, who has written extensively and beautifully about his model in Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope¹ and also on the H3Uni website. Our aim in this book is not to repeat what has been written elsewhere; rather it is to share how the Three Horizons model can be paired with other motifs to create wider patterns of practice around regenerative design. We also share insights from our experience of working with Bill at the Regenerative Design Lab.

From the Pattern Book for Regenerative Design.

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Overview of the model

The model describes three curves that overlap in time:

• Horizon One (H1) —  the current, dominant way of doing things. There are factors that are holding the current system in place, but there will also be forces that will eventually cause this way of doing things to give way. 
• Horizon Three (H3) — the future we want, something that we want to create that has its origins in ideas and emerging trends that we see today. 
• Horizon Two (H2) — the transition phase in which current systems give way to new technologies and practices which in turn are stepping stones to the third horizon. Horizon Two creates the conditions within which Horizon Three can emerge and take over.

The model immediately transmits the idea that even very fixed and apparently unchanging situations give way to something new, and that what comes next has already been gestating in the present.  

Role in the Pattern Book

• It helps us to imagine a future in which the act of building creates thriving communities and ecosystems. 
• It helps us to see the present system we are in, what holds it in place and what is causing it to change. 
• It helps us to connect to the ideas and technologies that can create stepping stones to our vision for the future.
• It helps us relate to others, understanding which horizon is their focus in their work.

The Three Horizons model, on its own, is regenerative-ambivalent: it says nothing on its own about creating a thriving future. But inevitably when we ask audiences about their hopes for the future, a vision often emerges that is consistent with some version of thriving. And when paired with other motifs in the library, the Three Horizons becomes a powerful facilitation and modelling tool for understanding regenerative design, identifying patterns and trends and deciding on courses of action.

User guide

Exploring the future potential of the present

The following are prompts for using the Three Horizons model to explore the future potential of the present.  

Thinking about Horizon Three

• What might the future look like; what do people imagine when they imagine the system working well?
• What are long-term trends driving this way?
• What pockets of the future exist in the present?

Thinking about Horizon One

• What evidence is there that the current system is under strain?
• How fit-for-purpose is the current system in response to emerging conditions?
• What is locking it in?

Thinking about Horizon Two

• What is disrupting the dominant pattern?
• Is innovation a trap or an opportunity?
• What are the ambiguities? 

Understanding group dynamics

Corresponding to the Three Horizons, Bill Sharpe identifies three mindsets that define where people’s preoccupations may lie:  

• The dreamer is thinking about the future and how things could be better. Has hopeful visions for the future which may not be formed in detail.
• The manager is thinking about how to cope with the existing situation. This is the reality for many people working in the present and preoccupied by an unstable situation.
• The entrepreneur is thinking about new things to set up, opportunities to explore, business ideas. 

Naming these roles in a workshop helps to welcome different people’s participation in a workshop and enables a more collaborative dialogue. 

Stimulating action

A  powerful use of the Three Horizons is to generate a long-list of Horizon-Two initiatives — transformational ideas and projects that are already underway or beginning to take shape. Mapping these within the Three Horizons framework can show how apparently diverse streams of activity can be contributing to creating change. 

A useful benchmark for a Horizon Two initiative is that it has to exist, either as a prototype or as a website, for it to be counted. This criterion enables us to distinguish ideas that have seeded and are gaining traction in a niche, rather than an idea that is looking for a place to be planted → see Seedling Analogy.

Once interventions have been identified, use other motifs to help choose what to prioritise (e.g. Establishing Tests, Brief for Thriving, Ambition Loop, Policy Window).

Extra notes on use

Use values to define the future

The most important thing guiding the transition to a regenerative future is the shared values we hold. Conversations about the details of the future are almost certainly inaccurate and likely to get into debates around details that can’t be resolved in a workshop. 

The simplest method I have seen Bill use is to hold a conversation about future values, to pin these values up around the room and to use these as a metaphorical holding device that can then frame conversations about the present and what we need to do next.

Not turning it into a timeline exercise

It is easy to use the model as a timelining exercise. But using the model to predict when, say one H2 technology is going to give way to an H3 technology misses the more important point that all of these futures exist in the present. The bigger question is what can amplify the transition towards the future that we want and dampen the future that we don’t.

Keep returning to the present

The model shows that what happens in the future is built from elements that we have today. It describes the future potential of the present. Thinking about what we want the future to look like is part of the conversation, but the conversation will remain idealistic unless we look for signs in the present that elements of that future exist (either in forcing factors or initial prototypes). 

The gold in all of this is that the Three Horizons model helps us focus on present-day situations while also seeing their future potential — enabling a transition to something better.

Related motifs

Brief for Thriving, Library of Systems Change, Regenerative-Ambivalent, Seedling Analogy

1. Sharpe, B. (2020). Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope (2nd ed.). Triarchy Press. https://www.triarchypress.net/three-horizons.html
   
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