Library of Systems Change

The Library of Systems Change helps us map systems change over time. It is both a visual and strategy tool for design, planning and policy. It combines two motifs:

• Three Horizons – how present systems give way to the future.
• Systems Bookcase – how systems are structured.

The overall effect is a compelling visual for how systems change over time and a practical tool for long-term planning, policy and strategy design.

Overview of the model

The Library of Systems Change has three Systems Bookcases:

• The bookcase of the present — how the system currently operates.
• The bookcase of the future — the long-term system we are aiming for.
• The bookcase of transition — the system in transition between now and the future.

Each bookcase has the same shelves as the Systems Bookcase model:

• Design — what we see and what gets built.
• Operations — the rules, information flows and feedback loops that decide what gets built.
• Mindsets — the values that guide decision-making.
• Goals — the outcomes that the system produces.
• Paradigm — the overarching philosophy.

The books in the library are coloured according to which paradigm they best align:

• Red — present paradigm (H1 books).
• Yellow — future paradigm (H3 books).
• Blue — transition paradigm (H2 books).

From the Pattern Book for Regenerative Design.

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Role in the Pattern Book

The Library of Systems Change model shows how existing system structure evolves over time. 

The bookcase of the present

The left-hand bookcase represents the world as we see it now. Red books dominate, showing the dominant patterns that shape the current system.

Yellow books are rare — they represent small, often contradictory examples of a future paradigm emerging within the present.

Blue books are more common than yellow on this bookcase: tolerated by the present system, they represent transitional practices that hint at what’s next. 

The bookcase of future

The right-hand bookcase represents the future we are trying to enable. Yellow books dominate here — these are the patterns consistent with the world we want to create.

Some blue books remain from the transition, and a handful of red books persist — by necessity or value — as enduring elements from the past.

The challenge of envisioning the bookcase of the future is that it is very hard to see what is on it. The view is obscured by the present. To help us get a better sense of what could be on the shelves of the future bookcase, the Pattern Book draws on: 

• Living Systems Blueprint to imagine operations aligned with thriving.
• Changing Mindsets to explore values and beliefs consistent with a regenerative future.

The transition bookcase

The middle bookcase represents the crossover period. Here, H1 patterns are declining, H3 patterns are rising, and H2 patterns hold the tension between them.

This space reflects the emergence of a transition paradigm — not quite the future, but no longer the present.

User guide

• For intuitive thinkers — Use the Library of Systems Change to organise the thoughts, examples and observations that you have gathered through exploration of systems you inhabit and work with.
• For systems thinkers — Use the model to frame your exploration of systems through a systems-change lens.
• For people working on projects — In the analysis phase, use the Library to identify blockers and opportunities for change → see OODA Loop > Orient.
• For dreamers — Don’t start here. It can crush creativity, but it can be a good way to test the viability of your ideas.
• For change-makers — Use the Library of Systems Change to orient yourself in the various courses of action available to you before creating your strategy. 
• For sceptics — Focus on the blue books — innovations that already exist within the current paradigm and offer opportunities for business and collaboration.
• For strategic thinkers and business planners — Populate your own Library of Systems Change to look at how the strategic opportunities and threats develop over time.
• For policy makers — Use the Library of Systems Change to see the role that policy plays over time in enabling and hindering change. 

Sometimes the image of the Library of Systems Change is enough for the motif to serve its function, other times, you need to populate your own.

Populating your own Library of Systems Change

This mirrors the Three Horizons process — but focuses on system characteristics rather than time alone. (For a more informal process, see Juice the System.)

It’s iterative, speculative, and never complete — but helps surface patterns, insights and actions.

We assume here a future paradigm that is holistic, and aligned with the Goal of Regenerative Design.

1. Populate the ‘Bookcase of the Present’ with red books

Focus on red-paradigm characteristics — often shaped by ideas of linear growth and efficiency.

On each shelf:

• Design — What gets built? (e.g. cheaply built, poorly insulated housing)
• Operations — What sustains those designs? (e.g. cost-prioritising regulations)
• Mindsets — What thinking underpins those rules? (e.g. scarcity, short-termism)
• Goals — What are the real drivers? (e.g. GDP growth)
• Paradigm — Name the overarching red paradigm.

2. Populate the Bookcase of the Future with yellow books

Turn to the Bookcase of the Future and envision a paradigm of holism. Here, the goals focus on enabling humans and the living world to survive, thrive, and co-evolve.

Approaches to populating this bookshelf:

1. Use your imagination, hopes, and expertise to identify yellow books for each shelf. What would we build, create, or inhabit in this future?
2. Use the Changing Mindsets motif to explore how a world that is governed by these regenerative mindsets would be organised and built.
3. Use the Living Systems Blueprint to explore how our human infrastructure could exist as part of a wider web of life.

3. Populate the transition bookcase with blue books 

The next bookcase represents the transition from red to yellow. The paradigm here reflects a shift from growth-centric to holistic thinking.

For each shelf, identify blue books:

• Design: Examples of innovative or alternative designs
• Operations: New policies, guidelines, or feedback loops
• Mindsets: Shifts in values or ways of thinking

As a guide, blue books should already exist in some form today, even on a small scale.

4. Find the Future in the Present 

Return to the present bookcase. Look for:

• Blue books already in play.
• Yellow books that persist despite the red paradigm.

5. Find the Present in the Future

Ask:

• What red books might remain, whether by choice or by necessity?
• What elements might adapt or evolve to align with the yellow paradigm?

Conclusion on the Library of Systems Change

The Library of Systems Change helps to hold in mind the present, the future and the transition between them. It shows us that lots of different sorts of work are needed to create the transition to a viable future. Some of that work is imaginative. Some is about creating stepping stones for transition. And some is about actively managing out the destructive systems of the present.

Related motifs

Changing Mindsets, Continuous Place-Based Design, Feedback Loops, Juice the System.